About this site

This site was created as a follow-up to a publication dealing with the prediction of probability of nasal MRSA carriage in patients admitted to a German university hospital.

About the author

My name is Johannes Elias. Please have a look at my personal website for further information and trivia.


The purpose of this site is purely educational. Predicted probabilities or estimated positive predictive values are not necessarily correct for your setting. The main aim of this project is the promotion of scientific discussion.

How does it work?

The prediction tool uses the very same models as described in the paper. The R package 'mrsapdc' exposes them and can be installed from github, provided you have R and package remotes installed.


I would like to thank my late mentor, Professor Ulrich Vogel, who I miss dearly. I am further grateful to Professor Peter Heuschmann, who introduced me to the topic of calibration. I also thank Dr. Sven Schimanski, who, to my knowledge, is the only person (outside the group of authors and reviewers) who read above paper. Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to all the authors and supporters of our original paper.


If you have any helpful comments or suggestions, please contact me by email.